Why the Blue Jays’ Jose Bautista is a Smart Bet Against the Marlins: Picks and Odds

Blue Jays vs. Marlins: A Betting Perspective

The Blue Jays are set to face the Marlins tonight in Miami, as they wrap up their three-city road trip. The pregame narrative surrounding this matchup is centered around Jose Berrios, the steady presence in the Blue Jays’ rotation. With a soft schedule for the Marlins recently, the best bet for this game is for the Blue Jays to score first and win the game.

Berrios: A Reliable Starter

Jose Berrios has been a key contributor to the Blue Jays’ success this season. In his past eight starts, the Blue Jays have an impressive 7-1 record. Berrios has showcased his talent during this span, pitching into the sixth inning or deeper in each outing and allowing two or fewer runs in seven of them. In comparison to his performance last year, Berrios has shown significant improvement, with a lower ERA (3.28) and opponent OPS (.661). This indicates his growth as a pitcher and his ability to dominate opponents.

Soft Schedule for the Marlins

Although the Marlins have been performing well recently, winning six of their past eight games, it’s important to note that they have faced a relatively soft schedule. They have not played a team above .500 all month, which raises questions about the true strength of their wins. Additionally, their success in nail-biting one-run games (18-5 record) indicates that they may not be as dominant as their recent record suggests.

Key Stat: Berrios’ Road Starts

A key statistic to consider is that Toronto has scored first and won in four of Jose Berrios’ past five road starts. This trend indicates that the Blue Jays have had success when they take an early lead in games where Berrios is on the mound. Given this history, it further supports the best bet for the Blue Jays to score first and win.

Offensive Advantage for the Blue Jays

In terms of offense, the Blue Jays have the advantage over the Marlins. Miami is expected to use a bullpen game for tonight’s matchup, and with the Marlins‘ relievers being quite busy over the weekend, the Jays’ offense should be able to capitalize. Miami’s bullpen has a mediocre 3.99 ERA, ranking 16th in MLB. In contrast, Toronto ranks fifth in MLB in team OPS on the road (.760) and has averaged 4.8 runs per game in that setting.

Quick Pick: Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (-112)

Considering the factors mentioned above, a quick pick for this game is the Blue Jays to score over 4.5 runs. Given Miami’s bullpen situation and Toronto’s strong offensive performance on the road, there is a good chance that the Blue Jays will be able to generate enough runs to surpass this mark.

Editorial and Advice

In this matchup, it is clear that the Blue Jays have several advantages over the Marlins. Jose Berrios has been exceptional on the mound, and Toronto’s offense has been consistently strong. On the other hand, the Marlins have benefited from a soft schedule and have relied on close wins in one-run games.

From a betting perspective, it is advisable to place bets on the Blue Jays to score first and win. This takes into account Berrios’ performance in his road starts and the overall dominance of the Blue Jays when they take an early lead. Additionally, considering the Marlins‘ bullpen situation and Toronto’s offensive prowess, betting on the Blue Jays to score over 4.5 runs is a reasonable choice.

However, it is important to remember that sports betting involves risks, and no outcome is guaranteed. It is always wise to exercise caution and bet responsibly.+