Turkey’s Changing Outlook: Exploring the Reasons behind Its Shift on Sweden’s NATO Membership

Turkey‘s Change of Stance on Sweden‘s NATO Membership

Turkey has agreed to allow Sweden to join NATO after closed-door negotiations between NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and the leaders of the two countries ahead of a NATO summit in Lithuania. The decision by Turkey marks a significant shift in its stance and has raised questions about the motivations behind the decision.

Key Conditions for Turkey‘s Support

Turkey‘s support for Sweden‘s NATO membership came after receiving backing on key conditions. These conditions include the purchase of US F-16 fighter jets by Turkey and visa-free travel for Turkish citizens to Europe’s Schengen area. The administration of US President Joe Biden also announced its intention to move forward with the transfer of F-16s to Turkey, suggesting a trade-off for Ankara’s support for Stockholm’s NATO membership. This indicates that negotiations over Sweden‘s entry into NATO were aided by a US-Turkey defense deal.

Background: Turkey‘s Wider Agenda

According to experts, Sweden‘s membership in NATO has been a subheading in Turkey‘s agenda towards the West, specifically the United States. Turkey has had expectations over F-16s from Washington, and this desire has been apparent throughout the process. However, Turkey also sought a normalization and improvement in its relations with EU countries and the US through Sweden‘s membership process. Turkey used Sweden‘s NATO bid as a way to push for these improvements and strengthen its overall relationship with the West.

Turkey‘s Relationship with the West

The decision to support Sweden‘s NATO membership can be seen as part of Turkey‘s broader strategy to mend its relationship with the West, which has been strained for more than a year. Turkey‘s purchase of the S-400 defense system from Russia, despite warnings from the US, led to a bilateral crisis between Turkey and its NATO allies. The US subsequently imposed sanctions on Turkey under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), making Turkey‘s veto on Sweden‘s NATO bid a point of contention.

Erdogan’s Message to the West

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan saw Sweden‘s NATO membership as an opportunity to deliver a message to the West regarding his concerns over “terrorism.” Erdogan wanted Sweden to change its laws to be stricter on terrorism, with the hope that it would influence other Western allies to do the same. By linking Sweden‘s NATO bid with terrorism-related issues, Erdogan aimed to push for stronger actions against groups Turkey considers terrorists.

Turkey-EU Relations

In addition to strengthening its ties with the US through Sweden‘s NATO bid, Turkey also aimed to improve its relations with the European Union. The joint statement released after the talks between Turkey and Sweden addressed Turkey‘s frozen EU accession process, with Sweden expressing support for efforts to revive the membership talks. Turkey has been a membership candidate since 2005, but negotiations have stalled since 2016. The statement also mentioned Turkey‘s desire for the modernization of the EU-Turkey Customs Union and visa liberalization, both of which have been longstanding demands from Ankara.

Linking EU and NATO Issues

Erdogan further linked Sweden‘s NATO bid to restarting Turkey‘s EU talks, a request that was rejected by Washington and Berlin. Erdogan proposed that Turkey‘s path to NATO membership would only open once Turkey‘s EU accession process resumed. By connecting these two issues, Erdogan aimed to acquire the backing he wanted over the customs union and visa-free travel.

Conclusion

Turkey‘s change of stance on Sweden‘s NATO membership reflects its larger agenda of improving its relationships with the West, particularly with the US and the EU. The conditions set by Turkey, including the purchase of F-16s and improvements in EU-Turkey relations, were key factors in Turkey‘s decision to support Sweden‘s NATO bid. While the exact motives behind Turkey‘s change of stance may be complex and multifaceted, it is clear that Turkey sees Sweden‘s NATO membership as an opportunity to strengthen its position and influence within the Western alliance.