Tensions Rise in the South China Sea: The Philippines and China Edge Closer to Conflict

South China Sea: Why the Philippines and China are on a collision course

Introduction

The tension between the Philippines and China in the contested waters of the South China Sea has escalated in recent months, bringing the long-standing conflict into the spotlight. Filmed encounters between Philippine coastguards and Chinese maritime militia vessels, as well as the deliberate policy of the Philippine government to expose China‘s assertive control, have heightened the risk of a confrontation between the two nations. This article will explore the reasons behind this growing conflict, the tactics employed by both sides, and the potential consequences.

Changing Tactics

The confrontation between the Philippines and China over submerged shoals in the South China Sea has been ongoing for decades. However, in recent months, there has been a significant change in the way these spats unfold. The encounters are now being filmed and broadcast by Philippine journalists, showcasing China‘s actions to the world. This deliberate policy of “assertive transparency” aims to shine a light on China‘s assertiveness in the disputed waters.

Starting in January, the Philippine government began providing more video evidence of these encounters to local media. By summer, they started taking journalists, including the BBC, on boats and aircraft to witness the disputes first-hand. This strategy has been likened to turning on a light to expose China‘s “grey zone operations” in the region.

China‘s Reaction

China appears to have been taken aback by these new tactics. Initially, it seemed that the Philippine government’s strategy was effective, leading to a lull in China‘s activities. This allowed Manila to make re-supply runs to an outpost it maintains on Second Thomas Shoal, known as the Sierra Madre. However, China‘s overall assessment is that the Sierra Madre cannot withstand the test of time, and eventually, the Philippines will be forced to evacuate the marines on board.

During the past six years under former President Rodrigo Duterte, this assumption seemed justified, as he pursued a policy of warming ties with Beijing. However, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who took office last year, has reversed this policy and embraced the alliance with the United States. Marcos Jr has also been vocal about China‘s incursions into the Philippines‘ Exclusive Economic Zone, showing a renewed determination to assert sovereignty.

A Crisis Point

The Philippines‘ urgency to maintain its presence on Ayungin Shoal and China‘s determination to prevent the survival of the Sierra Madre are driving the escalating tension between the two nations. Reports suggest that the Philippines has been secretly shipping construction materials, including cement and scaffolding, to reinforce the deteriorating ship. Nevertheless, experts doubt that these measures can significantly extend the ship’s life, and they predict that it could break up imminently.

When the Sierra Madre inevitably crumbles into the South China Sea, it raises several questions about the future of the disputed area. Will China seize control of the reef, as it has done elsewhere in the South China Sea? Will the Philippines attempt to ground another vessel on Ayungin Shoal? And how will the United States react to this potential crisis? Only time will tell, but the day of reckoning appears to be approaching rapidly.

Conclusion

The Philippines and China are undeniably on a collision course in the South China Sea. The recent change in tactics, with the Philippines highlighting China‘s actions through media coverage, has intensified the conflict. As both nations become more assertive, the risk of a direct confrontation looms larger. The potential consequences of the Sierra Madre collapsing could further escalate tensions and trigger a power struggle for control of the reef. The international community, particularly the United States, will need to closely monitor these developments and consider their implications for regional stability and global security.