Navigating New Horizons: Syrian Refugees on the Path to Resettlement

Middle East & North Africa

Syria | Report By Land or By Sea: Syrian Refugees Weigh Their Futures

By Jesse Marks | October 13, 2023

After 12 years of war, nearly 5.2 million Syrian refugees in Türkiye, Lebanon, and Jordan are caught in an increasingly untenable limbo. Host countries are normalizing relations with the Syrian government and are eager for refugees to depart, even though there is no foreseeable prospect of them ever safely returning to Syria. The time has come for a serious global conversation on durable solutions for Syrian refugees—one that acknowledges the impossibility of return and grapples seriously with expanded local integration and global resettlement.

The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has clearly articulated that conditions in Syria are not suitable for a safe, dignified, and voluntary return. Regardless, host countries, contending with their own economic pressures, are increasingly normalizing relations with Syria, while simultaneously ramping up efforts to force Syrians to return—even though there is no foreseeable prospect of them ever safely returning to Syria. This is a clear violation of their obligation to the principle of non-refoulement.

The Syrian government does not want Syrian refugees to return en masse but exploits the refugee crisis to pressure neighboring countries to engage more deeply in normalization and reconstruction. Syrian authorities continue to employ forced conscription, reprisals, arbitrary detention, extortion, or enforced disappearances against the Syrian people, including Syrian refugee returnees and deportees. Efforts by Jordan and senior UN officials to secure meaningful safeguards for returnees from the Syrian government have failed. The failure to find a durable solution to the refugee crisis works to the Syrian government’s political advantage by granting it unchecked leverage over Syria’s neighbors.

In Lebanon and Türkiye, security forces are actively raiding and deporting thousands of Syrian refugees, in violation of their legal rights to protection, back to Syria, where some face arrest, extortion, and torture. Syrians remaining in these countries are left to cope with deepening fear and insecurity over their futures. These measures not only threaten refugees’ safety but also undermine the essential work of Syrian NGOs in host countries and in Northwest Syria. Humanitarian aid is meanwhile declining as donors, fatigued by the protracted response, are turning their focus to more recent crises. The failure of donor countries and UN agencies to counter rising restrictions and pressures on Syrian refugees endangers their lives, compelling many to take perilous routes to Europe—resulting in the largest increase in migration there since the 2015 Mediterranean crisis. Concurrently, recent reductions in UN aid and food assistance further drive refugees to contemplate these risky journeys. Further cuts on the horizon will push Syrian refugees deeper into poverty and force aid agencies to cut their services to the most vulnerable.

Host countries should immediately cease refouling Syrian refugees and expand pathways for them to remain legally in neighboring countries. In return for this commitment, donors should offer host-countries a new package of support to fund local integration and dramatically expanded resettlement. To this end, the United States and EU could also work with host countries on more novel solutions, including expanding the donor pool to incorporate BRICS+ and GCC countries and capitalizing on initiatives like the Jordan Compact and the India-Middle East-EU Corridor to bolster the economic inclusion of Syrian refugees. Moreover, these steps should go hand in hand with broader U.S. and EU commitments to resettlement. Specifically, the Biden administration should aim to resettle at least 20,000 Syrian refugees by 2024.

If Syrian refugees face a choice only between forced return to an unsafe Syria or indefinite legal limbo and increasing destitution in neighboring host countries, many are likely to vote with their feet and attempt irregular migration to Europe and other places where they might find a better future.

Recommendations

To the Governments of Türkiye, Lebanon, and Jordan:

– Refrain from normalizing or enhancing coordination with the Syrian government on return of Syrian refugees.
– Comply with international law and avoid pushing Syrian refugees to return prematurely or adopting policies that exert undue pressure on them.
– Respect the legal status of Syrian refugees residing in their territory and establish clearer pathways for them to remain without fear of deportation.
– Immediately cease raids, detention, and deportation of refugees and strictly adhere to international non-refoulement obligations.
– Empower Syrian NGOs to help address the needs of refugees in host countries and in Northwest Syria.

To the United States, European Union Members, and Other Donor Countries:

– Launch a Syria Refugee Study Group to explore new opportunities for innovative solutions and make recommendations for supporting refugees and host countries.
– Pressure host governments to cease the persecution, raid, arrest, and refoulement of Syrian refugees.
– Reiterate that Syria is not safe for return and challenge narratives that suggest otherwise.
– Implement a new aid package for host countries, incorporating non-traditional donors.
– Expand resettlement of Syrian refugees.
– Use new support to promote refugee economic inclusion in host countries.

To the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR):

– Reinforce refugee protection and condemn host countries’ violations of non-refoulement.
– Strengthen protection monitoring for Syrian returnees and deportees.

Methodology and Research Overview

Refugees International conducted three research trips in Jordan, Lebanon, and Türkiye in June and July 2023 to assess the conditions and challenges facing Syrian refugees living in neighboring countries and evaluate the impact of recent steps between the Arab states to normalize relationships with the Syrian government on the viability of durable solutions for Syrian refugees. The team interviewed Syrian refugees, Syrian-led organizations, INGOs, UN officials, government officials, and an array of other experts in each country. This research builds on several years of research and interviews undertaken by Refugees International on the mounting challenges facing displaced Syrians both inside Syria and in neighboring Türkiye, Jordan, and Lebanon.

Background

Since May 2023, some diplomatic efforts to normalize relations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have intensified. After years of international political isolation, a push by Assad’s long-standing allies, chiefly Russia and Iran, and fatigue by its neighbors has opened the way for legitimization of the Syrian regime. The most significant momentum has come from countries in the region, notably demonstrated in May 2023 when the Syrian government was welcomed back to the Arab League.

One major pillar of this effort aims to recast Syria as safe for Syrian refugees to return. This rhetoric has been welcomed by Syria’s neighbors who have been emboldened to push harder for Syrian refugees to go back prematurely. This dangerous trend poses dire risks for millions of refugees in Türkiye, Lebanon, and Jordan. This report lays out the main challenges in each country then highlights key aspects of this troubling trend, ending with recommendations for how it can be reversed.

Türkiye

Conditions for Syrian refugees residing in Türkiye have noticeably worsened since Refugees International visited Türkiye in May 2023 following a post-earthquake wave of anti-Syrian policies and political rhetoric. The earthquake amplified the suffering of millions of Syrian refugees in heavily impacted areas. Türkiye hosts as many as 3.6 million Syrian refugees, who hold temporary protection (TP) status within Türkiye. However, it is becoming increasingly uncertain whether this status will be sufficient to remain in Türkiye.

As Ankara weighs its future role in Syria, senior Turkish officials have met with their Syrian government counterparts in discussions, brokered by Russia, around a pathway to normalization. President Erdoğan, empowered by his May 2023 election victory, has promised to return 1 million Syrians to Northwest Syria. Shortly after, Turkish authorities began a major crackdown on Syrian refugees in many Turkish provinces, notably Istanbul, of those residing and working without proper legal permits. Syrian refugees, while still reeling from the physical, emotional, and psychological toll of the earthquake, now face threats of arrest, detention, and deportation by Turkish authorities.

Deportations, while not necessarily new to Türkiye, have increased in rate, resulting in the deportation of as many as 20,000 Syrians in 2023. The number could be higher. See section “Raids and Refoulement.”

Lebanon

Conditions for Syrian refugees in Lebanon have worsened considerably over the past year. Lebanon is the country with the highest refugees per capita globally with an estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees—or a quarter of Lebanon’s population. Most Syrian refugees in Lebanon lack basic access to humanitarian aid, with nearly half of Syrian children out of school. Most Syrians lack legal work permits, pushing them into the precarious informal sector, and heightening their risk of exploitation.

The political and economic situation in Lebanon has deteriorated, resulting in soaring inflation, widespread job losses, and reduced access to essential goods and services. These conditions are intensifying the humanitarian plight of both Syrian refugees and Lebanese citizens, with both groups sinking into poverty with limited prospects for relief. The Lebanese government has scapegoated Syrian refugees, escalating tensions within host communities and fueling public backing for harsher measures against refugees, including detention and deportation.

Jordan

Jordan hosts more than 1.2 million Syrian refugees, with 680,000 registered by UNHCR. Most live within Jordanian communities, while about 10 percent reside in refugee camps. Jordan offers enhanced employment opportunities for these refugees in exchange for favorable trade access under the Jordan Compact. Yet, many Syrians still work in low-wage informal sectors or depend on UN assistance. Most refugees in Jordan fled Southwest Syria, which was retaken by Syrian forces in 2018. The region’s ongoing instability has lessened their hopes of returning.

While Jordan aims to enhance conditions in areas of return and curb narcotics trafficking along its borders, it believes reconciliation with the Syrian government is essential to achieve these goals. Jordan leads in advocating for Syria’s Arab League reintegration and broader global diplomatic acceptance. Concerned about dwindling donor support, Jordan and Türkiye emphasize the importance of engaging with the Syrian government to facilitate refugee returns.

The Push for Return

Türkiye, Lebanon, and Jordan see the return of Syrian refugees as a preferred near-term objective. In theory, voluntary repatriation is best suited if conditions allow for returnees to undertake a safe, voluntary, and dignified return. The protracted nature of the refugee crisis, however, is pushing governments to jumpstart the process of return even without any such safeguards in place.

Those familiar with recent efforts by senior UN and Arab officials to engage with the Syrian government told Refugees International that the Syrian government will not provide sufficient protection guarantees or access for UN monitors to ensure the safety of returnees. The eagerness of Arab governments to normalize diplomatic relations with the Assad regime thereby works at cross-purposes to their objective of repatriating refugees. Even if such safeguards were agreed to, there is little evidence the Syrian government would abide by them.

Jordan jumpstarted negotiations between Arab states and the Syrian regime on the repatriation of Syrian refugees. Jordan’s pilot plan calls for the return of at least 1,000 Syrian refugees in exchange for donor commitments to funding for early recovery in areas of return. This proposal was endorsed by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Egypt. But UN officials and one donor told Refugees International that the proposal has not gained traction with UNHCR or Western donors.

Politicians have scapegoated Syrians for various national issues, including economic instability and inflation. Such rhetoric has permeated host communities, stirring resentment further inflamed by the earthquake aftermath. Many Syrians hoped Erdoğan’s election would curtail the political vilification of refugees and reduce pressure on them. However, more aggressive interactions between Turkish authorities and Syrians following the elections, including raids and detention, diminished these hopes.

In Lebanon, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) launched a concentrated campaign of extensive raids and detentions aimed at Syrian refugees who lack legal residency. According to the UN and various NGO officials, the LAF actions were premised on a 2019 mandate that offers no due process for those apprehended.

In Jordan, the Kingdom has largely refrained from the widespread deportation of refugees to Syria, unlike Türkiye and Lebanon. Jordan has been accused of smaller-scale deportations in the past, particularly in cases where a refugee is perceived to be a direct threat or affiliated with terrorist actors.

Worsening Environment for Syrian Refugees

The failure to secure voluntary returns at scale is driving a more repressive approach to Syrian refugees and eroding conditions for refugees in Türkiye, Lebanon, and Jordan. A series of challenges now threaten refugee protection and heighten the vulnerability of refugees in these countries.

Post-earthquake Challenges in Türkiye: Syrian refugees in Türkiye have faced a crackdown following the earthquakes in February 2023, with increased raids, detention, and deportations by Turkish authorities. This has intensified uncertainty and fear among Syrian refugees, who now face the risk of arrest and deportation.

Lebanon Closes the Door on Legal Registration: In Lebanon, legal restrictions and recent policies have made it increasingly difficult for Syrian refugees to obtain legal status. This has left many refugees at heightened risk of refoulement and deportation.

Less Aid, Less Inclusion in Jordan: Jordan, facing a downward trend in donor support, is likely to see reductions in aid in the near future. This will have a significant impact on Syrian refugees, especially those reliant on UN assistance. The lack of sufficient support for integration also poses challenges to refugee inclusion in Jordanian society.

Raids and Refoulement

Thousands of Syrian refugees have been forcibly deported from neighboring countries to Syria in the first half of 2023. Türkiye has intensified raids, detention, and deportations, while Lebanon and Jordan have also engaged in deportations.

Türkiye: Turkish authorities have increased systematic raids, detention, and deportations of Syrian refugees, with as many as 20,000 Syrians deported since January 2023. These deportations are often carried out under the guise of voluntary returns, but there are reports of coerced repatriation and physical abuse against refugees in detention facilities.

Lebanon: The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) launched a campaign of extensive raids and detentions targeting Syrian refugees who lack legal residency. Those detained face immediate deportation without due process. Reports indicate that some deportees have been handed directly to the Syrian army’s notorious Fourth Division, known for its atrocities against civilians during the war.

Jordan: Jordan has refrained from widespread deportations, but smaller-scale deportations have been reported, particularly in cases where refugees are perceived to be threats or affiliated with terrorist actors.

These actions violate human rights and international law, endangering the lives and safety of Syrian refugees.

Fleeing to Europe

A growing number of Syrian refugees are considering relocating to Europe in search of better opportunities. In 2023, there has been a spike in asylum applications in the EU from Syrian refugees, with thousands also attempting dangerous land and sea routes to reach Europe.

Lebanon has become a central point of departure for refugees taking sea routes to Cyprus, Greece, and Italy, with the majority of boats intercepted or turned back by Lebanese authorities. Those who do manage to reach Europe are at risk of being deported back to Lebanon and then subsequently deported again to Syria. EU members, notably Cyprus, are urging the EU to reconsider its policy against returning asylum seekers to Syria.

The lack of legal pathways and support for Syrian refugees in neighboring countries is driving them to seek uncertain and perilous routes to Europe.

Recommitting to the Syrian Refugee Response

To address the challenges facing Syrian refugees in Türkiye, Lebanon, and Jordan, a comprehensive approach is needed.

– Host countries should cease refouling Syrian refugees and expand pathways for them to legally remain. Donors should offer support packages to fund local integration and resettlement.
– Resettlement quotas for Syrian refugees should be expanded, with the United States and EU committing to resettling at least 20,000 Syrian refugees by 2024.
– Donors should explore innovative strategies, such as launching a Syria Refugee Study Group and engaging non-traditional donors like BRICS+ and GCC countries.
– Support packages should also focus on promoting refugee economic inclusion in host countries through initiatives like the Jordan Compact and the India-Middle East-EU Corridor.

It is crucial for donors and UN agencies to recommit to supporting Syrian refugees and to counter rising restrictions and pressures in host countries. Failure to do so will only deepen the suffering and endanger the lives of millions of Syrian refugees.