Election in Jean-Talon: The Honeymoon Is Definitely Over …

Partial Analysis in Jean-Talon: The Honeymoon is Over for the CAQ

Historic Breakthrough for the Parti québécois (PQ)

In a surprising turn of events, the Parti québécois (PQ) achieved a historic breakthrough in the Jean-Talon by-election. With 44% of the votes, the PQ managed to conquer a riding that had previously been out of their reach. While by-elections are influenced by specific local dynamics and circumstances, PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has reason to celebrate. In just one year, he has managed to reverse the declining fortunes of his party. Although the PQ is still far from gaining power, this victory will allow them to differentiate themselves from other opposition parties.

For several months now, the PQ has been positioning itself as the second political force in Quebec. While this claim has been more of a rhetorical flourish than a proven fact, this victory will give the PQ more credibility and prominence. In a fragmented parliament, where opposition parties struggle to capture attention, this win will provide a boost to the PQ’s efforts.

A Blow to the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ)

After five years in power, the government of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) has suffered its first significant electoral setback. Since 2018, the CAQ had been steadily gaining ground in both by-elections and general elections, with the exception of the Camille-Laurin by-election last fall under unique circumstances. However, the CAQ’s luck appears to be fading. Despite fielding a well-known and established candidate in Jean-Talon, the party lost over 10 percentage points in terms of votes in just one year. The intensive presence of CAQ elected officials on the ground in recent weeks did not yield the desired results.

While it would be premature to draw definitive conclusions based solely on this result, given the unique political dynamics in Quebec over the past few months, it is evident that the CAQ has been losing support in national polls for the past year. The decreasing satisfaction rate and concerns about the rising cost of living, housing shortages, and lack of access to public services have eroded the CAQ’s popularity. While the defeat is undoubtedly painful, the CAQ can take solace in the fact that it has defied expectations thus far. Remaining at the top of the polls after five years in power, particularly during a pandemic, is a significant accomplishment. However, it was inevitable that the CAQ would eventually come down from its high. The abandonment of the third link project likely hastened this decline.

Decline for Québec solidaire (QS) and the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ)

Québec solidaire (QS), which finished in second place last year, slipped to third place in Jean-Talon. Despite the attributes that could make the riding fertile ground for the party, such as its urban character and the presence of the Université Laval campus, something did not click. The challenge will be significant for the person chosen as the new female co-spokesperson of the party in assisting Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois.

As for the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ), after decades of dominance in Jean-Talon, it has managed to lose even more ground in a riding where it had already made significant concessions in recent years. The meager 9% of support gained by the PLQ will require the party to seriously reconsider its identity. However, it is unclear what the party can propose to reverse the situation, as this defeat appears to have structural underpinnings, with the Liberal candidate having made no major campaign missteps. Advertising on the Meta platforms did not yield the desired results for either party.

Attention to Parallels

It is natural for PQ activists to draw parallels between this election and the one that propelled the CAQ to victory in Louis-Hébert in 2017. While Geneviève Guilbault’s victory undoubtedly positioned her party as an alternative to the PLQ the following year, the current situation is different. The next general elections will not take place for another three years, and even then, the CAQ will have only been in power for eight years, compared to the Liberals’ fifteen years in 2018. Moreover, the CAQ continues to lead in the polls and benefit from the division among the opposition parties. However, political landscapes can change rapidly. Anyone who would have predicted a PQ victory in Jean-Talon a few months ago would have been laughed at.

Editorial: Shifting Political Dynamics

The outcome of the Jean-Talon by-election highlights the shifting political dynamics in Quebec. While the PQ’s victory is undoubtedly significant for the party, it does not fundamentally change the political landscape or pose an immediate threat to the CAQ’s leadership. However, it does provide an opportunity for the PQ to position itself as a distinctive opposition voice and challenge the CAQ’s dominance.

The CAQ, after enjoying a period of electoral success, now faces the challenge of maintaining public support. The abandonment of the third link project, which aimed to connect Quebec City and Lévis, has raised concerns among voters. The CAQ must address the rising costs of living, housing shortages, and access to public services to regain momentum and remain competitive in the face of growing dissatisfaction.

For QS and the PLQ, the results signify a decline in support and raise questions about their future strategies. Both parties need to reconsider their messaging and connection with voters to regain relevance and address the structural challenges they face.

It is important to remember that by-election results are not always indicative of general election outcomes. However, they do provide valuable insights into evolving political dynamics and serve as a wake-up call for parties to adapt their strategies and respond to the concerns of the electorate.

Advice for Political Parties

The Jean-Talon by-election serves as a reminder for political parties to stay connected with the electorate and address their concerns effectively. It is crucial for parties to listen to voters and understand their needs and aspirations.

The parties should focus on crafting policies that address the rising cost of living, housing shortages, and access to public services. They need to demonstrate their ability to bring practical solutions to these issues and restore public confidence.

Furthermore, parties must engage in effective communication strategies that resonate with voters. This includes utilizing various platforms to reach a diverse range of constituents and conveying their messages clearly and convincingly.

Political parties should also take this opportunity to reflect on their identities and values. In a rapidly changing political landscape, parties must adapt to remain relevant and appeal to a broad spectrum of voters. This may involve reevaluating their policy positions and engaging in inclusive and open dialogue with the electorate.

The Jean-Talon by-election serves as a reminder to all parties that political fortunes can change quickly. It is imperative for parties to continuously engage with their constituents, listen to their concerns, and demonstrate their commitment to addressing the issues that matter most to the people they serve.