Blue Jays vs Rangers Predictions: Can the Blue Jays Overcome Gausman’s Absence?

The Toronto Blue Jays’ Upcoming Matchup Against the Texas Rangers

Blue Jays’ Struggles Against American League East Opponents

The Toronto Blue Jays have had a tough time against their American League East opponents, with a disappointing 7-17 record. However, when facing teams outside of their division, the Blue Jays have been much more successful, boasting a 31-15 record. Unfortunately, their escape from divisional play leads them to face off against one of the best teams in the American League, the Texas Rangers.

The Texas Rangers‘ Impressive Performance

The Texas Rangers have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season, leading the AL West with a superb 42-26 record. Their success can be attributed to the exceptional performance of their lineup, which has scored the most runs in the MLB this year. In fact, their +143 run differential is even better than that of the consensus best team in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays.

Gausman’s Ability to Shut Down the Rangers

The Blue Jays’ ace, Kevin Gausman, will be tasked with shutting down the potent Rangers lineup. Despite coming off a rough outing against the Minnesota Twins, Gausman has shown himself to be one of the most unhittable pitchers in the American League. His mid-to-upper 90s fastball and devastating splitter make him a formidable opponent. With a 3.47 expected ERA and a .235 expected batting average against, Gausman has demonstrated his ability to limit opponents’ success. He also ranks in the 93rd percentile when it comes to strikeout rate. Gausman has already proven himself against tough lineups such as the Astros, Orioles, Yankees, and Phillies.

The Challenge of Martin Perez

The Blue Jays will face Martin Perez, a left-handed pitcher who is trying to regain his form from last year when he earned his first All-Star selection. While Perez’s overall numbers may not be outstanding, he has shown better performance at home. He boasts a sparkling 1.40 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and has limited opponents to a .594 OPS in home games this season. The Blue Jays, despite having a dangerous lineup of their own, have struggled against southpaws. They often fail to produce timely hits and currently rank 25th in the MLB with a .236 batting average with runners in scoring position. Additionally, they rank 23rd in OPS and 20th in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season.

Predictions and Betting Analysis

The total for this matchup is set at 8.5, which has been bumped up to 9. However, this number seems inflated considering the recent rough outings by Gausman and Perez. Both pitchers have the potential to perform well in this matchup, making it likely that the game will be low-scoring early on. A good bet would be to target the Under on the five-inning total.

In terms of a same-game parlay, taking the Under on a total of 9.5 and adding Gausman to record 7+ strikeouts seem like solid choices. Gausman is currently leading the American League in strikeouts with 117 and has consistently struck out seven or more batters in his starts this season. Additionally, adding a total bases prop for Blue Jays player Whit Merrifield going Over 1.5 total bases would further increase the value of the parlay.

Considering the moneyline, it is a challenging game to handicap as both teams have their strengths. The Blue Jays have the better starter in Gausman and a stronger bullpen, while the Rangers have a more potent and consistent lineup. If the Blue Jays’ moneyline drops to around -130, they could be a good value bet. On the other hand, if the Rangers‘ moneyline moves to +130, the value would lie with them as underdogs.

Trend to Know

An interesting trend to consider is that the Under has hit in 10 out of the Blue Jays’ last 15 games against teams with winning records. This trend might give some insight into the potential outcome of this matchup.

Conclusion

The upcoming matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers presents an intriguing battle between two teams with different strengths. While the Blue Jays have struggled against their divisional opponents, they have performed well against non-division teams. However, facing the strong lineup of the Rangers will be a challenge for their ace, Kevin Gausman. Betting on the Under in the five-inning total and adding Gausman recording 7+ strikeouts in a same-game parlay could yield favorable results. Ultimately, the outcome of the game will likely depend on which team can capitalize on their respective strengths.